How many candidates in the French general election can you name? Chances are, unless you haven’t read an international section in weeks (in which case you’re the type of person that I mock passive-aggressively on Twitter), you were able to name one or more of the incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy, Socialist François Hollande and the Old Right-style Marine Le Pen. There are six others (three small-s socialists/Communists, a Green, a trade protectionist and an adherent of Lyndon LaRouche), plus my favorite: François Bayrou.
The above link from The Economist doesn’t spend much time talking about Bayrou, but they did describe him as a centrist who should have polled well above fifth place in the first round of France’s ranked-choice vote (the second will be on May 6). A review of Bayrou’s profile reveals that this is his third presidential campaign, that he formed his Democratic Movement party, that he is pro-EU and pro-national growth, and that he describes himself as a centrist and a Clintonian. My type of candidate in most respects, except for the pro-EU stance.
I don’t know enough about Bayrou personally to judge whether or not he actually deserves to win. But his ideas deserve much more of a hearing than they’re getting, especially when you consider that most indications support a victory for Hollande, now that the field has winnowed down to him and Sarkozy. The idea of another socialist European president should be chilling to anyone even remotely worried about a regional fiscal collapse.
As The Economist points out, Hollande is not a reformer; he is more concerned with keeping the welfare state intact than about making hard choices to revive France’s economy. But they disapprove of Sarkozy’s preference for the German approach, which they view as counter-productively restrictive, as well as his pandering to the far right. True, Sarkozy is more willing to embrace reforms – just the wrong ones.
None of this should come as much of a surprise, seeing as 64 percent of French disapprove of Sarkozy. This election seems to reflect their feelings perfectly: They are the ones unwilling to embrace reforms, and Hollande is capitalizing (pun intended) on that sentiment. Perhaps Bayrou does not inflame political passions the way his opponents do. What is the solution to a problem that repeats itself across oceans? Do centrist candidates simply need sharper teeth, or whole new mouths to put them in?
Or perhaps voters dislike Bayrouisme because it calls out the waste they have allowed to continue. Nobody likes a stern lecture. But how often have you realized how much sense that lecture made later?